No. 01The Memo

A thesis without a stated way to be wrong is an opinion.

Before capital moves, you make the case: classification, sizing, the probability you assign, the horizon you give it — and the evidence that would prove you wrong. Your reasoning, in your words, signed by you.

Once sealed, it locks. Editing creates a new version. The original is never overwritten.

Investment Memo№ 0001 · 2023.11.14
Halcyon Instruments · HLCN
Classification
Compounder
Role
Core · 12.2% weight
Investment casethesis · kill criteria
Thesis
Halcyon compounds through a connected installed base that keeps paying. Services are roughly a third of gross profit and grow faster than the hardware they ride on. The market prices a mature device vendor; we back a widening-moat annuity, mispriced on refresh-cycle fears the base has absorbed before.
Kill criteria
Services growth below 8% for two straight quarters, or the buyback is paused. Either voids the thesis.
Return hurdle20%/yr
Probabilityof clearing 20% over the horizon · your call
62%
Horizon1y 7m of 3-year · active
Dated2023.11.14 · $84.20
On the record — sealed before capital moved
Fig. 01 · Investment Memo. Sealed before capital moves.
For illustration purposes only
No. 02The Process

A memo is not written once.

Writing it is the first pass. As the thesis is tested it is revised, version by version, and every capital decision answers to the record, not the other way around.

01

Memo

The first time, you fill out the memo: classification, sizing, confidence, idea origin, and the investment case.

02

Review

As the thesis is tested, you revise it section by section. Each revision becomes a new version.

03

Capital Decision

The capital decision to initiate, increase, or reduce always follows the memo, never the other way around.

No. 03Accountability

Every dollar is measured against the market. Every call is scored against the outcome.

Every holding has a Position Page with alerts, notes, performance, research, news, market data, and full history. Names under review are staged before capital is committed.

Benchmark

Every position, shown against the S&P 500, dollar for dollar. The gap is shown plainly, including when negative.

S&P 500 Benchmark · All Accounts
Portfolio Value46,782.11
S&P 500 Value50,627.41
Difference−3,845.30−7.60%
For illustration purposes only
Active Positions

What you hold, ordered by weight. Each position is open, measured, and accountable to the memo that opened it.

Open Orders2
Active Positions20
NVDA25% WT
Compounder
18,950.00CAD+42.6%
187.60USD+0.8%
EarningsReview due
RKLB20% WT
Speculative
12,950.00CAD+22.6%
82.40USD−2.8%
Under review
For illustration purposes only
No. 04The Allocator

Most people own positions.
Allocators own decisions.

A decision is recorded before capital moves: the reasoning, a confidence level stated as a probability, and a horizon. When the horizon closes, the stated confidence is scored against what actually happened.

Repeated, that becomes calibration — how closely your confidence tracks reality.Confidence, made measurable.

Predicted vs actualY · Actual accuracy
X · Confidence
Average confidence
71%
Actual accuracy
54%
Difference
−17%
Stated confidence exceeds actual accuracy.
Calibration over time
No. 05Account Types
TFSAGrowth and withdrawals are completely tax-free, within an annual contribution limit that carries forward when unused. The most flexible registered account, with no tax on what compounds inside it.Tax-free
Pros

Growth and withdrawals are completely tax-free. The annual contribution limit is set each year by the CRA, plus any unused room from prior years, which carries forward indefinitely with no expiry. Funds stay accessible without penalties or age limits.

Cons

Annual contribution caps limit how much can be invested each year, and withdrawals reduce available room until the next calendar year.

RRSPContributions reduce your taxable income now, and investment growth is deferred until you withdraw, usually in retirement when your marginal rate is lower. Built for long-horizon, tax-aware compounding.Tax-deferred
Pros

Contributions reduce taxable income in the current year, or can be carried to a future year, and growth is tax-deferred until withdrawal. The annual limit is 18% of earned income, up to a CRA-set maximum, plus any unused room, which carries forward automatically.

Cons

Withdrawals are fully taxed as income. Early withdrawals permanently reduce contribution room, except under the Home Buyers’ Plan or Lifelong Learning Plan. The account must convert to a RRIF by age 71, ending tax-deferred compounding.

Use case

Commonly used by higher-income investors reducing taxable income during peak earning years while building long-term wealth.

Non-RegisteredNo contribution limit and no withdrawal restrictions, but investment income and capital gains are taxed each year. Typically used once your registered accounts are fully funded.Taxable
Pros

Unlimited contribution capacity, with no withdrawal limits or age restrictions. Realized capital losses can offset taxable capital gains.

Cons

Investment income and capital gains are taxed each year, reducing long-term compounding. There is no tax-sheltering or contribution carry-forward, and no structural advantage over registered accounts.

Use case

Typically used only after maximizing TFSA and RRSP contributions, or for short-term investing where preserving registered room is a priority.

No. 06Documents & Resources
No. 07Research

Research comes before the memo.

Every membership includes access to Fiscal.ai Max, a professional-grade research and analysis environment. Most investors trade based on price and headlines. Serious investors analyze businesses.

Multi-Year Financials

Income statement, balance sheet, cash flow.

Capital Allocation

Return on capital and free cash flow analysis.

Margin Trends

Margin trends and capital allocation history.

Company Comparisons

Clean company comparisons across time.

Filing Summaries

AI-assisted tools to summarize filings.

Segment & KPI Data

Business-line revenue, 2,500+ companies.

Earnings Call Transcripts

Full transcripts, with sourced AI summaries.

The AI supports analysis. It does not make decisions. This research layer exists to raise the standard of thinking inside the platform. It is not a stock picker, a signal engine, or a shortcut. It is a disciplined research environment designed for investors who intend to do the work.

Normally $99/month, included.

No trading commissions. FX carries no added fee; a conversion spread applies.

Self-Directed is available as part of the Intelligent Investing subscription.
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